Israel Studies

Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza have been struggling to develop their national institutions and to establish workable and hopefully democratic patterns of governance. Their efforts have gone forward with increased vigor since the historic Declaration of Principles was signed by the PLO and Israel in September 1993, and particularly since the Palestinian Authority was established in Gaza in June 1994. The election of the Palestinian Council in January 1996 was another important milestone. There have been setbacks and disappointments, of course. Palestinians themselves frequently complain about corruption and human rights violations on the part of their leaders. ¹ Nevertheless, political life in Palestine is characterized by institutional and ideological pluralism, by intense political competition, and by vigorous debate about government policy on a wide range of issues.

The attitudes and behavior of ordinary citizens are increasing important in this environment. Participation in the 1996 elections was almost 80 percent, for example, reflecting, according to one observer, “a popular yearning for participation in the political process that will determine the Palestinians’ future.” ² In these elections, as in local elections and in the activities of Palestine’s numerous political factions more generally, competition for support at the grassroots level is a critical dimension of political life. Moreover, as explained by a leading Palestinian scholar, this reflects an emerging political culture that is “hospitable to democratic values and practices.” Ordinary men and women, he continues, “overwhelmingly support a democratic political system and show readiness to participate in the political process. They support freedom of the press, the rights of the opposition, and the right of women to political participation.” ³

Popular attitudes relating to Israel and the Palestinian-Israeli peace process are also increasingly important. On one hand, the degree to which [End Page 22] Palestinian political leaders must take public opinion into account when making decisions and formulating policy has significantly increased, and it is likely to increase even more if progress toward democracy continues. On the other, interested parties outside of Palestine, and especially Israelis, are asking whether a Palestinian government accountable to its citizens will have a stronger or weaker commitment to peace based on territorial compromise and mutual recognition. ⁴ The answer to this question has important implications for Israelis, Americans, and others, as well as for Palestinians.

Against this background, the present paper reports on the analysis of an unusual and very valuable set of opinion poll data collected by the Center for Palestine Studies and Research (CPRS) in Nablus. The CPRS has been surveying representative samples of West Bank and Gaza Palestinians over the age of eighteen since September 1993, following the signing of the Israel-PLO Accord. Polls are usually conducted at intervals of one or two months, and the CPRS, often in collaboration with the International Republican Institute in the United States, regularly issues descriptive summaries of the findings from this research. ⁵ A more thorough analysis of these survey data has not yet been undertaken, however, and this is the contribution of the present paper. ⁶ More specifically, drawing upon data collected from January 1994 through June 1997, three kinds of findings are presented: the first is a distribution over time of partisan attachments; ⁷ the second is a comparison over time of the demographic characteristics associated with particular partisan preferences; and the third, using data from an August 1995 survey that asked a broader array of questions, is an examination of the attitudinal and demographic correlates of support for the Palestinian-Israeli peace process. A postscript presents a descriptive summary of Palestinian attitudes during much of 1998.